Economic forecast for Poland

After rebounding in 2024, Poland’s economy is set to expand at a faster rate in 2025. Growth is forecast to be supported by strong private consumption and investment, while net exports are expected to weigh on the economy. Growth is projected to slow down in 2026. Inflation eased in 2024 but is forecast to pick up temporarily in 2025 due to the unfreezing of energy prices. Following a high general government deficit in 2024, gradual fiscal consolidation is expected over the forecast horizon.

In 2025, real GDP is forecast to increase by 3.6%. Private consumption is set to remain the key driver of growth alongside investment, including EU-funded public investment and investment related to reconstruction following the September 2024 floods. The negative contribution from net exports is expected to narrow on account of a rebound in exports as economic growth in key trading partners picks up.

In 2026, growth is projected to moderate to 3.1% as private and public consumption, as well as investment growth, slow down. Risks to the outlook relate mainly to delays in the implementation of public investment.

Employment decreased in the first half of 2024 following the weak economic growth in 2023 and is projected to fall by 0.3% for the year as a whole. In 2025 and 2026, it is expected to increase only moderately as the labour force stagnates amid shrinking population of working age.