Poland’s economy is set to expand at a faster rate in 2025. Growth is forecast to be supported by strong private consumption and investment, while net exports are expected to weigh on the economy. Growth is projected to slow down in 2026. Inflation eased in 2024 but is forecast to pick up temporarily in 2025 due to the unfreezing of energy prices. Following a high general government deficit in 2024, gradual fiscal consolidation is expected over the forecast horizon.
In 2025, real GDP in Poland is forecast to increase by 3.6%. Private consumption is set to remain the key driver of growth alongside investment, including EU-funded public investment and investment related to reconstruction following the September 2024 floods. The negative contribution from net exports is expected to narrow on account of a rebound in exports as economic growth in key trading partners picks up.
In 2026, growth is projected to moderate to 3.1% as private and public consumption, as well as investment growth, slow down.
