FCHAIN Türkiye Office informs: Türkiye’s economy is projected to grow by only 3% this year and next, which is lower than the government’s forecasts of 3.5% for this year and 4% for 2025. The anticipated slowdown comes as authorities take measures to combat rampant inflation, including tightening monetary policy.
Economists expect the central bank to maintain its key interest rate at 50% during its upcoming meeting on October 17, but they foresee a gradual easing of policy by 250 basis points by the end of the year. Since mid-2023, the central bank has raised rates by a total of 4,150 basis points in an effort to stabilize the economy after years of low-rate policies aimed at boosting growth.
The poll also predicts that GDP growth will average around 3% in the coming years, with an expected rise of 3.6% in 2026. While Natixis acknowledged the government’s commitment to orthodox economic policies and fiscal consolidation, they noted that such measures have further constrained growth. Although a recession is not imminent, a slowdown in real GDP growth is expected.
